Timing Drivers Visualized (the Why Now question part 2)

If you’re finding this post now, I actually wrote a book about all this… It’s called Why Now: How Good Timing Makes Great Products. You’ll get a fuller perspective there.

In the previous post on Why Now: Timing and Product Success I introduced 12 timing drivers. That list of drivers was Technological, Social/Behavioral, Regulatory/Legal, Installed Base, Economic, Networks, Distribution, Capital Access, Organizational, Available Talent, Demographic, and Crisis.

These are the drivers that help you determine if what you are building is going to hit the market at the right time. 

To get a better feel for them, I like to visualize the way those drivers behave. Here they are with some simple diagrams that explain more about how they work.

And this is part art, part science. I’m writing this series because as important as the Why Now question is, I haven’t seen many people dive into the question deeply. I’m trying to do that over a series of posts and workshops.

Select from this list and add to it depending on your situation.

Technology drivers change what you can build. What was too slow, too expensive, or impossible becomes fast, cheap, and possible. Here are a couple examples.

Economic drivers reflect changes in the economy you operate in. They are usually not smooth changes – at least not for long. Shocks are common. 

Regulatory and legal drivers describe the way businesses are prohibited or required because of governmental decisions. Some types of businesses and products are strongly prohibited, only to be allowed later on. Sometimes those prohibitions or requirements operated cleanly – like an on/off switch. And sometimes there’s a lot of flexibility. In those cases, regulatory/legal drivers are more like a dimmer switch.

In some cases, there is predictability to these changes. An example of clean predictability is when something is patented, allowing the patent holder to commercialize it while preventing others. But patents are for a limited number of years. Some industries only grow when key patents expire.

Less predictable changes include new legislation that is influenced by public interest groups or lobbyists, changing public opinion, and elections that affect who votes on rules.

As for the dimmer switch, some rules are just loosely enforced. 

Social and behavioral drivers can offer surprises. 

There are enduring human needs that seem like they’ll never go away, as long as there are people. A short list would include love of music and entertainment and the need for housing and food.

There are also habits that emerge or are promoted. Over the centuries, people started drinking coffee and tea – old products that have been commercialized in increasingly more ways. People also started to drink alcohol in many forms, sometimes commonly in the evening and at other times and places in history, from breakfast until dinner. What determines those changes?

Installed Base drivers rely on the existence of another product that the new business will ride on top of. 

Devices in use may perform a vital function that enables something new. 

Different from Installed Base, Network drivers create opportunities through their connections. 

Network drivers are affected by the number of nodes, connections between them, and how communication flows.

Organizational drivers are about the way people organize themselves and resources. Innovations in these drivers affect what can be built and how.

New types of Distribution, both physical and digital, make new businesses possible. 

What Available Talent is there to support the building of specific products? What will these people need as they take new roles?

Demographic Drivers describe the way populations change over time. Some changes are predictable in advance (you need 25 years to grow a new group of 25 year olds). And some change over time.

Capital Access changes over time with the economy, interest rates, evidence of success stories, and other trends. 

And whatever the situation, a Crisis can change things quickly. Crises can change the speed and direction of processes and result in unexpected outcomes.

These are examples. Your experience may not be described above. But you can use the categories to explore which drivers impact your business and what specifics you see in each.

Feel free to say hello here or at @porlando on Twitter. I hold “Why Now” workshops periodically. Contact me to learn about the next one.